Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Mayuka Aikawa vs Ikumi Yamazaki
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c3779ceb3035e519935797115264e28d918dfa8e6bfc5aa4b0e3ae0748b871c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ikumi Yamazakiof Mayuka Aikawa, Ikumi Yamazaki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mayuka Aikawa | 14c | 6,851$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.8 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Mayuka Aikawa | 28c | 1,001$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 433 | 34.9%151 W · 282 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…3b9bbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 79c | 509.73$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 159 | 66%105 W · 54 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked Mayuka Aikawa | 21c | 509.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 275 | 30.2%83 W · 192 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 71c | 504.66$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.35 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Mayuka Aikawa | 17c | 469.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Mayuka Aikawa | 14c | 215$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1,381 | 16.4%227 W · 1,154 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Mayuka Aikawa | 46c | 175.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 72c | 165$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…97f6backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 54c | 162.09$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…23bdbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 167 | 69.5%116 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Mayuka Aikawa | 24c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Mayuka Aikawa | 41c | 142.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Mayuka Aikawa | 14c | 139.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 221 | 13.6%30 W · 191 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 61c | 117.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 73c | 89.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Mayuka Aikawa | 45c | 71.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mayuka Aikawa | 45c | 65.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mayuka Aikawa | 20c | 63.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 55c | 62.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Mayuka Aikawa | 21c | 47.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…3be3backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 55c | 38.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…10ffbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…8a6ebacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 74c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 417 | 68.1%284 W · 133 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mayuka Aikawa | 44c | 26.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…bb6cbacked Mayuka Aikawa | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 77c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…50d0backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 75c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 746 | 46.1%344 W · 402 L | -30.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.