Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0caa830162a9686c2ee25ebc3078826eed611a98b70518ec67bdabc9d28b7217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 1,002$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 3c | 753.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 27c | 345.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 270.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 225.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 38c | 178.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.64 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 64c | 171.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 47c | 159.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 29c | 136.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 49c | 117.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 112.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 22c | 107.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 69c | 99.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 74c | 96.36$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 46c | 91.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 91.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 85.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 50c | 74.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 52c | 71.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 42c | 68.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 65.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 48c | 58.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 53.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 41c | 51.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 49.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2511…5ae9backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 45c | 44.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 39c | 44.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 43.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…c876backed Yes | 45c | 42.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…eae5backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 59c | 37.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 32.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 34c | 30.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 67c | 29.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed Yes | 70c | 28.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 55c | 26.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 61c | 25.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 21.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 20.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…e73dbacked Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 17.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.