Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cac32fb1a54512c22ba7518e18c87873d7e82ab5f56c2cab8477762cd9229d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 697.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 601.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 408.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 373.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 7c | 347.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 310.85$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 70c | 310.51$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 271.85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 25c | 243.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 24c | 232.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 229.32$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 223.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 31c | 198.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 22c | 185.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 29c | 180.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 7c | 154.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 70c | 138.56$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 132.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 127.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 19c | 119.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 115.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 113.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 107.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 14c | 101.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 18c | 78.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 16c | 68.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed Yes | 31c | 64.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 37c | 60.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 68c | 60.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 58.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 55.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 22c | 55.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked Yes | 29c | 47.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…c14fbacked Yes | 23c | 45.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 32c | 40.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 40.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 65c | 32.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.