Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x069f71e8b493779dcef9a75c4c086a1f05290eaefb4e77e084a831b1c804ff3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 589.05$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed No | 20c | 521.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 71c | 351.92$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 76c | 341.93$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.75 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 315.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 59c | 310.44$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.75 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 309.56$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 4c | 296.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 80c | 284.91$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 28c | 260.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.79 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 60c | 240.59$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed No | 8c | 231.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 199.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.93 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 65c | 196.38$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 42c | 177.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.36 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 171.89$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 11c | 169.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 37c | 165.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 52c | 157.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 67c | 144.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 74c | 141.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.67 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 13c | 139.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 135.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 134.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 15c | 118.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed Yes | 23c | 116.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.16 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 67c | 115.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 111.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 102.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 95.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 72c | 93.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 92.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 57c | 80.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 36c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 79.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 14c | 79.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 39c | 76.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 52c | 71.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 35c | 66.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 44c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 58.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 50c | 56.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 29c | 55.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 45c | 51.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…9180backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 24c | 49.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes | 31c | 47.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 47c | 47.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 26c | 47.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 50c | 45.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 42.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 31c | 41.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4668…cba6backed Yes | 26c | 39.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 64c | 37.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 53c | 37.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 35c | 37.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 74c | 32.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 55c | 31.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 42c | 31.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 33c | 30.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 42c | 28.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…4493backed Yes | 39c | 28.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 69c | 28.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 71c | 28.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 71c | 27.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 76c | 23.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 69c | 22.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…73f6backed Yes | 55c | 22.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 69c | 21.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 19.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…585abacked No | 76c | 19.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 19.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 18.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…02fcbacked No | 66c | 17.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 68c | 16.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 63c | 16.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…16e5backed Yes | 72c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…1631backed Yes | 74c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 73c | 14.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 14.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 75c | 13.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.