Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d5e80ee164c586e3cf952be0db6a6b0056b2eb40061e8d75e19cad2aecd02af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked No | 51c | 9,298$4,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,534.81 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x638c…fa96backed Yes | 65c | 1,542$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 2c | 1,370$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 65c | 1,271$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.01 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 18c | 854.5$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.43 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 57c | 773.27$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.37 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 4c | 666.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 24c | 629.27$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.04 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed Yes | 53c | 595.55$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.88 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 52c | 514.14$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.64 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 63c | 508.47$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.27 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 53c | 502.21$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.67 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 53c | 487.99$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.12 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 38c | 460.22$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.77 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 451.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 449.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 18c | 410.05$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 48c | 392.53$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.2 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 71c | 369.84$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.84 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 365.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 350.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 346.72$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 9c | 311.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 51c | 301.67$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.79 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes | 70c | 255.22$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.89 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 56c | 237.35$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.93 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 56c | 222.8$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 19c | 208.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 49c | 201.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 198.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed Yes | 54c | 195.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 61c | 175.2$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x185b…0f27backed No | 49c | 164.93$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.53 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 50c | 163.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 22c | 162.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 60c | 155.64$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 148.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 69c | 139.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 124.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 121.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…fd0dbacked Yes | 36c | 118.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 24c | 108.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 34c | 104.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 58c | 103.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 51c | 94.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 38c | 88.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 65c | 83.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…20e0backed Yes | 47c | 80.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 70c | 79.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 16c | 79.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 60c | 78.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 63c | 76.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 34c | 74.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 18c | 69.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…ce62backed Yes | 52c | 67.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 46c | 61.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0524…9dcebacked Yes | 46c | 52.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1ca5backed Yes | 30c | 49.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 56c | 44.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 70c | 41.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…b43cbacked Yes | 48c | 39.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 50c | 38.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 38c | 37.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 36.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 34c | 35.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 68c | 33.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 64c | 30.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed No | 62c | 29.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 66c | 29.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 49c | 29.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 65c | 28.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7506…6996backed No | 56c | 25.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 72cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de4…04b6backed Yes | 53c | 24.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…1df0backed No | 47c | 24.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 70c | 20.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.