Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cae38be85822f0d986ccb2bdf05bfc7723628900e9f74abde7a185a19c4e4be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paulof Fils, Paul
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,318 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Paul | 66c | 2,007$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.88 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a51abacked Fils | 34c | 1,079$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.02 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Fils | 32c | 615.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Fils | 30c | 584.47$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.21 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed02…85f7backed Paul | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Fils | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Paul | 67c | 215.96$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Fils | 33c | 203.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Fils | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Paul | 68c | 174$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Paul | 66c | 77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed Fils | 33c | 69.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -10.4wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -29%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Fils | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 903 | 35.8%323 W · 580 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Paul | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Paul | 66c | 49.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…2297backed Fils | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Paul | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Paul | 72c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f2…a4bebacked Paul | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)this page
- Miami Open: Tommy Paul vs Arthur FilsArthur Fils won
- Paul vs. Fils: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Paul vs. Fils: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Paul vs. Fils: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Paul vs FilsPaul won
- Tommy Paul vs. Arthur Fils: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.