MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cc52395028267b0a88b495e4f40215a5c5110f89d69fb6fa3bc8e8125612646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 6c | 3,334$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.72 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 59c | 2,956$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.13 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 41c | 1,100$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Over | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 40c | 620$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 537.71$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 485$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 9c | 472.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 38c | 460.3$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.91 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 7c | 442.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 437.43$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.71 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 225.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 61c | 156.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 54c | 135.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 61c | 133.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Over | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 19c | 116.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 40c | 109.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 79c | 79.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 60c | 73.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Under | 60c | 56.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 54c | 56.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 56.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 49c | 45.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Over | 40c | 39.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 36.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.