Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ce55b7b1520b2ea58cb6e0c3bd2eaca5d236bf15aa52637019433c293380c9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 5,214$2,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,869.83 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 3,689$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 54c | 1,650$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.81 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 55c | 1,600$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked Under | 55c | 1,455$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.91 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 48c | 520.97$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.97 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 46c | 485.32$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.32 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 55c | 444.44$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.44 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 54c | 338.34$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.7 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 35c | 171.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 57c | 119.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 17c | 107.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 46c | 65.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 52.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 77c | 52.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…44d8backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 53c | 25.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 25.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Under | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.