Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3f31e421bedff1bf40f301780ffff7598a0bf217b231c661ee144a09dd7d698
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 8,382$4,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,056.71 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 7,079$3,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,553.11 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 53c | 6,500$3,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,445 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…b2a9backed Over | 53c | 5,153$2,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,755.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 55c | 3,639$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.86 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 2,535$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.5 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 1,287$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.44 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 1,216$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.65 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 24c | 830$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 51c | 804.26$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.41 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Under | 79c | 708.88$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.44 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 519.55$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.37 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 42c | 472.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Over | 54c | 445$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.3 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 60c | 417.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.22 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 21c | 350$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 45c | 269.68$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.33 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over | 51c | 250.02$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.09 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 51c | 194.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Over | 54c | 147.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 63c | 135.42$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 21c | 132.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 25c | 121.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…0a7bbacked Over | 24c | 118.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 47c | 100.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 49c | 100.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 18c | 72.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 45c | 69.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Over | 24c | 43.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…772abacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +113%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…b190backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Over | 54c | 25.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 51c | 22.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Over | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-2.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.