Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cfdfbce8161932631d4ceceec885ba9d35ea10350740f942f56d92165b277bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 412$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 45c | 370.47$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.49 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 309.16$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.17 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 245.45$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 194.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 174.67$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 56c | 145.05$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…3b5abacked Yes | 58c | 126.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 63c | 111.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 39c | 106.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 106.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 48c | 104.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 53c | 96.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 90.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 60c | 84.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 48c | 79.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 42c | 79.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 49c | 79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 75.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 71.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 63c | 71.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 50c | 70.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 60.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 32c | 56.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 46c | 50.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 49.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 44c | 42.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 28c | 40.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 51c | 40.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 66c | 40.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 59c | 38.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed Yes | 52c | 37.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 54c | 37.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 36.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…76cebacked Yes | 63c | 35.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 52c | 33.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 50c | 21.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.