Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x073086af11fd977fbf3f0b2c77a07390b1b2258c185ebd9cf1e69fb34955b027
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 815.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.27 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 418.47$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 251.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 34c | 139.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 42c | 133.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 121.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…168abacked Yes | 55c | 108.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked No | 33c | 99.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 45c | 86.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 39c | 82.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 46c | 82.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 38c | 78.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 74.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 34c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 51c | 60.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 40c | 59.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 39c | 58.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 37c | 58.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 71c | 56.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…76cebacked No | 63c | 49.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 39c | 49.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 35c | 49.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 47.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 59c | 45.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 40.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 78c | 38.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…ebe8backed No | 55c | 37.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 36.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 45c | 35.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 32.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 30.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 29.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed No | 57c | 29.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 70c | 28.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 28.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…3a40backed Yes | 50c | 21.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.