Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: NOVA (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d151038332dfaccf00a22bd448110fd91ad80a16c89ab04376b40351e4e5fe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nova Esportsof Nova Esports, Bilibili Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Nova Esports | 29c | 1,600$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.99 | 390 | 42.6%166 W · 224 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Bilibili Gaming | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -7.2wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Bilibili Gaming | 71c | 424.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Nova Esports | 25c | 302.67$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227 | 201 | 60.2%121 W · 80 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15fa…f856backed Bilibili Gaming | 75c | 302.67$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Nova Esports | 25c | 297.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.51 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Bilibili Gaming | 71c | 185.54$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 634 | 47.9%304 W · 330 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Bilibili Gaming | 72c | 140.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Bilibili Gaming | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Bilibili Gaming | 74c | 98.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b6…d353backed Nova Esports | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 251 | 46.6%117 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Bilibili Gaming | 71c | 55.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Nova Esports | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Bilibili Gaming | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 184 | 65.2%120 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Bilibili Gaming | 72c | 15.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: NOVA (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bilibili Gaming (-2.5) vs Nova Esports (+2.5)Nova Esports won
- Map Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Nova Esports (+1.5)Nova Esports won
- Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Seed DecidersNova Esports won
- Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 1 WinnerNova Esports won
- Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 2 WinnerNova Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.