Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x842b7e197db9ba963239d874ed05f934855013713b1302c01ad7b7377b0793a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nova Esportsof Nova Esports, Bilibili Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Nova Esports | 53c | 1,954$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.52 | 343 | 56.9%195 W · 148 L | +23.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Bilibili Gaming | 47c | 1,923$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.39 | 936 | 49.3%461 W · 475 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Bilibili Gaming | 49c | 1,304$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.08 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nova Esports | 60c | 826.07$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.23 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4850backed Bilibili Gaming | 21c | 767$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.98 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Nova Esports | 51c | 506$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.89 | 201 | 60.2%121 W · 80 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…02febacked Nova Esports | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…9f91backed Bilibili Gaming | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 604 | 23%139 W · 465 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Nova Esports | 51c | 341.55$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 467 | 46.7%218 W · 249 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Nova Esports | 73c | 299.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 1,612 | 45.1%727 W · 885 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…63fcbacked Nova Esports | 50c | 299.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.09 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Bilibili Gaming | 53c | 298.46$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.19 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…d35dbacked Nova Esports | 50c | 291.32$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.66 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Nova Esports | 74c | 285.78$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 1,312 | 43.8%575 W · 737 L | -44.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Nova Esports | 50c | 225.72$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 639 | 48%307 W · 332 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Bilibili Gaming | 50c | 207.32$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 189 | 40.7%77 W · 112 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…9532backed Bilibili Gaming | 45c | 185.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…5b3ebacked Nova Esports | 70c | 171.25$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Nova Esports | 76c | 171.22$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 751 | 42.7%321 W · 430 L | -27.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nova Esports | 57c | 165.31$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 1,495 | 46.6%696 W · 799 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1b…6d80backed Bilibili Gaming | 49c | 157.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…3492backed Bilibili Gaming | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 348 | 53.7%187 W · 161 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nova Esports | 49c | 133$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 1,281 | 32.1%411 W · 870 L | -67.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…20bdbacked Nova Esports | 51c | 117.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 124 | 50%62 W · 62 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…69debacked Bilibili Gaming | 46c | 108.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 519 | 48.4%251 W · 268 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Nova Esports | 50c | 104.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 214 | 57%122 W · 92 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…7a85backed Nova Esports | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +42%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Nova Esports | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Nova Esports | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e51…42cebacked Bilibili Gaming | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb11…7901backed Nova Esports | 50c | 98.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Nova Esports | 50c | 97.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Bilibili Gaming | 51c | 95.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 513 | 44.6%229 W · 284 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Nova Esports | 48c | 92.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 316 | 34.2%108 W · 208 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Nova Esports | 50c | 81.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Nova Esports | 71c | 80.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 575 | 50.6%291 W · 284 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d26…f4f8backed Bilibili Gaming | 14c | 80.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…79d7backed Nova Esports | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Nova Esports | 51c | 66.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Nova Esports | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Nova Esports | 79c | 59.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 783 | 44.1%345 W · 438 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Nova Esports | 55c | 54.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 160 | 31.3%50 W · 110 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaa…6abebacked Bilibili Gaming | 50c | 48.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Nova Esports | 42c | 47.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…4880backed Bilibili Gaming | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 47.8%98 W · 107 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nova Esports | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,607 | 37.5%603 W · 1,004 L | -75.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…c465backed Nova Esports | 64c | 40.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 653 | 47.3%309 W · 344 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Bilibili Gaming | 46c | 40.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 154 | 55.8%86 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Bilibili Gaming | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1,253 | 49.5%620 W · 633 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Nova Esports | 48c | 39.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 969 | 45%436 W · 533 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Nova Esports | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Nova Esports | 51c | 37.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 237 | 45.1%107 W · 130 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Bilibili Gaming | 51c | 37.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…ecfabacked Nova Esports | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb919…38e0backed Bilibili Gaming | 56c | 35.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Nova Esports | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 818 | 34.8%285 W · 533 L | -61.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Bilibili Gaming | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 349 | 54.7%191 W · 158 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Nova Esports | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 164 | 51.8%85 W · 79 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…8f39backed Nova Esports | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nova Esports | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 444 | 41.9%186 W · 258 L | -22.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Nova Esports | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 556 | 37.6%209 W · 347 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nova Esports | 56c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 913 | 33.2%303 W · 610 L | -89.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Nova Esports | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 326 | 57.4%187 W · 139 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bilibili Gaming (-2.5) vs Nova Esports (+2.5)Nova Esports won
- Map Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Nova Esports (+1.5)Nova Esports won
- Map Handicap: NOVA (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)Nova Esports won
- Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Seed DecidersNova Esports won
- Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 1 WinnerNova Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.