TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Seed Deciders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nova Esportsof Nova Esports, Bilibili Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$112,607
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,607 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc65c…ea39backed Nova Esports51c19,094$9,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,340.9834356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe55a…ecf7backed Nova Esports51c15,000$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,350.1683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+65.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Bilibili Gaming49c12,000$5,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,88010455.8%58 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Bilibili Gaming48c10,897$5,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,230.4228955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked Bilibili Gaming48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.993767.6%25 W · 12 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+32.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5c23…cab3backed Nova Esports52c6,126$3,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.057656.6%43 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Bilibili Gaming48c6,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.9126738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Nova Esports52c4,494$2,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.988951.7%46 W · 43 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeac2…dddcbacked Bilibili Gaming49c3,868$1,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.312652.4%66 W · 60 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Bilibili Gaming49c2,010$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.8821457%122 W · 92 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Nova Esports53c2,000$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.932245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Bilibili Gaming46c1,947$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.656229%18 W · 44 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Nova Esports52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.055464.8%35 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Nova Esports52c1,906$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.8528743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7441…4891backed Nova Esports52c1,873$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.921957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Bilibili Gaming49c1,667$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.0325660.9%156 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Nova Esports70c1,649$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.6332462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Bilibili Gaming48c1,609$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.927234.7%25 W · 47 L-11.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed Bilibili Gaming35c1,546$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53722344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Nova Esports52c1,530$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.446347.1%218 W · 245 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Nova Esports51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.939042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Bilibili Gaming49c1,342$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.3956551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Nova Esports52c1,260$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.828143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2405…e055backed Nova Esports54c1,248$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.2914955.7%83 W · 66 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Nova Esports52c1,154$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.8534857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked Nova Esports50c1,117$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.919737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9d4…f843backed Nova Esports54c1,111$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.01450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nova Esports52c1,006$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.0244342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Bilibili Gaming49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4903930.8%12 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Bilibili Gaming49c964.37$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.5416347.2%77 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Nova Esports52c964.22$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.838145.7%37 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Nova Esports52c905.75$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.266570.8%46 W · 19 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Bilibili Gaming49c882.22$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.8815038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Bilibili Gaming46c727.98$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.141942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Nova Esports54c721.41$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.574269%29 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+32.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc1ec…64b6backed Bilibili Gaming21c699.52$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.96028.3%17 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbcda…5e95backed Bilibili Gaming49c685.9$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.0911457%65 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x060d…d746backed Nova Esports51c683.88$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.061850%9 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Bilibili Gaming34c654.05$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22013743.8%60 W · 77 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b80…e5dfbacked Bilibili Gaming47c649.13$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.093243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Bilibili Gaming50c636.53$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.195962.7%37 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Bilibili Gaming48c630$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.41361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe82a…1101backed Bilibili Gaming49c615.12$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Nova Esports50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30086747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Nova Esports52c600$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28814158.2%82 W · 59 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Bilibili Gaming31c547.38$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1619546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Nova Esports52c530.02$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25413661%83 W · 53 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Bilibili Gaming49c517.86$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.7518641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a1…bedfbacked Nova Esports51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2452343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked Nova Esports53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2358334.9%29 W · 54 L-9.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked Nova Esports52c500$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23919751.8%102 W · 95 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c42…b792backed Bilibili Gaming48c499.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Bilibili Gaming15c496.91$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5460022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x528a…12f1backed Bilibili Gaming26c479.31$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.627143.7%31 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Nova Esports54c465.59$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.6193049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked Nova Esports50c441.1$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.552369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xade6…c465backed Bilibili Gaming38c436.58$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.565347.3%309 W · 344 L-18.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Nova Esports51c419.25$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.520160.2%121 W · 80 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked Nova Esports54c411.11$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.111040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe041…8380backed Nova Esports49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.162646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Bilibili Gaming49c400$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19628541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9734…bfd8backed Nova Esports51c380.94$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.6619257.8%111 W · 81 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Bilibili Gaming49c367.81$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.2325556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Nova Esports52c356.77$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8924551%125 W · 120 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1448…e868backed Bilibili Gaming47c327.75$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1542138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a0c…66f7backed Nova Esports52c306.33$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Nova Esports49c300.22$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.1125347%119 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadef…8fffbacked Bilibili Gaming50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-46%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Nova Esports52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4616241.4%67 W · 95 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-10.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Nova Esports63c285.68$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.661,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Nova Esports54c282.61$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13063955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Bilibili Gaming46c282.61$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13014941.6%62 W · 87 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec7…4a76backed Nova Esports72c250.01$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.214959.7%89 W · 60 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c15…5b4bbacked Nova Esports53c245.06$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.182665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+36.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Bilibili Gaming52c244.05$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.726048.3%29 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Bilibili Gaming46c239.13$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11025843%111 W · 147 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3192…71fbbacked Nova Esports52c230$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.43759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Nova Esports53c212.94$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0863447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Nova Esports52c211.54$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5423847.9%114 W · 124 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Bilibili Gaming48c209$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.325858.6%34 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Nova Esports72c208.7$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2657151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked Nova Esports52c207.83$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.766666.7%44 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x31a1…1227backed Bilibili Gaming49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb00…2b37backed Bilibili Gaming49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe73…6d77backed Bilibili Gaming49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dbd…4219backed Bilibili Gaming49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef9a…f58dbacked Nova Esports52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6a9…769ebacked Nova Esports52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd331…afdabacked Bilibili Gaming49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3657…a0a7backed Bilibili Gaming49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983537.1%13 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66d5…ee81backed Nova Esports52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x453b…db4abacked Nova Esports52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae5…5d19backed Bilibili Gaming49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3bb…e26bbacked Bilibili Gaming49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c44…5d15backed Bilibili Gaming49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Nova Esports50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10062856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb63…bea4backed Nova Esports52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cbf…7469backed Nova Esports52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b91…b1fbbacked Nova Esports52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x195a…f955backed Bilibili Gaming49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983470.6%24 W · 10 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+29.6%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.