Tennis · resolved market
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d7247aef3365a26332e0172678d75a4cecf32a5f0222522296870d717b19898
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guido Justoof Guido Justo, Thiago Cigarran
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24fd…1250backed Thiago Cigarran | 9c | 2,226$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.19 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Thiago Cigarran | 15c | 2,031$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.76 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a7…2d61backed Thiago Cigarran | 14c | 1,886$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.43 | 717 | 25.2%181 W · 536 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…40d3backed Thiago Cigarran | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 483 | 31.1%150 W · 333 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thiago Cigarran | 12c | 951.71$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.64 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Thiago Cigarran | 11c | 923.07$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Thiago Cigarran | 10c | 865.51$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 194 | 10.3%20 W · 174 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d2…4a24backed Thiago Cigarran | 8c | 682.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 529 | 10%53 W · 476 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Thiago Cigarran | 12c | 629.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.03 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Thiago Cigarran | 13c | 528.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Thiago Cigarran | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Thiago Cigarran | 16c | 476.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x301d…604dbacked Thiago Cigarran | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Thiago Cigarran | 4c | 441.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Thiago Cigarran | 12c | 420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…de2fbacked Thiago Cigarran | 9c | 385.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Thiago Cigarran | 13c | 384.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…efd1backed Thiago Cigarran | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Thiago Cigarran | 8c | 338.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Thiago Cigarran | 7c | 282.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Thiago Cigarran | 7c | 272.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 221 | 13.6%30 W · 191 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Thiago Cigarran | 7c | 259.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Thiago Cigarran | 12c | 220$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Thiago Cigarran | 14c | 210$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 592 | 53.5%317 W · 275 L | +22.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7c…406cbacked Thiago Cigarran | 7c | 200.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e0…5a1bbacked Thiago Cigarran | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 215 | 33.5%72 W · 143 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Thiago Cigarran | 11c | 158.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…08b8backed Thiago Cigarran | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Thiago Cigarran | 14c | 144.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Thiago Cigarran | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa141…6744backed Thiago Cigarran | 13c | 112.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Thiago Cigarran | 11c | 106.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed Thiago Cigarran | 12c | 100.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Thiago Cigarran | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed Thiago Cigarran | 12c | 93.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4def…06e6backed Thiago Cigarran | 15c | 71.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.