MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d826829f52d979c258a05755483996780651720d4a20ab599c864f2212b399e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,457 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Milwaukee Brewers | 0c | 3,694$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 1,038$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.32 | 1,361 | 50.8%691 W · 670 L | +13.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 327.9$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.81 | 858 | 49.4%424 W · 434 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 299.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.84 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 258$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 221.72$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3,320 | 46.2%1,535 W · 1,785 L | +22.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 157$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 139.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 491 | 46.4%228 W · 263 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 138.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 35.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,738 | 50.4%876 W · 862 L | +57.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,204 | 48.5%584 W · 620 L | -9.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 28.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 25.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d8…2374backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.