Spread: Chelsea (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d9aaec9fce85af27d79d21957582f677abd52ef01c7426dbe622950162bad93

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Chelseaof Chelsea, Burnley FC
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,540
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $32,122

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,540 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Burnley FC	62c	9,301$5,723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,722.99	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Burnley FC	63c	5,892$3,729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,729.39	308	51.3%158 W · 150 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Chelsea	37c	5,804$2,153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,650.82	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Chelsea	36c	2,000$720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,279.76	406	40.9%166 W · 240 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…de93backed Chelsea	37c	1,388$514 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$874.47	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Chelsea	31c	1,070$332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$738.06	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Chelsea	48c	1,001$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520.42	64	35.9%23 W · 41 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6b4…1014backed Chelsea	47c	840.52$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$441.52	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-24%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Chelsea	37c	810.81$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$510.81	240	47.5%114 W · 126 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Chelsea	36c	800$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$512	449	39.6%178 W · 271 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Chelsea	42c	595.97$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$345.66	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe930…b44dbacked Burnley FC	58c	533.32$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.33	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-3.0wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-21%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d94…40e6backed Chelsea	30c	500$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Chelsea	39c	478.89$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$291.62	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd8d…a108backed Burnley FC	65c	461.85$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Burnley FC	62c	357.09$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.4	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc711…d3c6backed Chelsea	38c	300$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Burnley FC	61c	284.65$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.53	201	50.2%101 W · 100 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x630c…1230backed Chelsea	36c	284$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$181.76	103	33%34 W · 69 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfc…0fc2backed Burnley FC	58c	250.57$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.33	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8287…059ebacked Chelsea	40c	250$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Chelsea	37c	243.24$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.24	131	49.6%65 W · 66 L	-7.5wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x385e…3896backed Chelsea	43c	232.56$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.56	118	39%46 W · 72 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa626…4300backed Chelsea	37c	225.89$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.31	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x571e…67b2backed Chelsea	45c	222.22$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.22	117	36.8%43 W · 74 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc059…f2debacked Chelsea	37c	177.95$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.11	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7203…c123backed Burnley FC	61c	163.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Chelsea	41c	134.15$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.15	86	32.6%28 W · 58 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Burnley FC	60c	125.83$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.51	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…b1b1backed Chelsea	40c	125$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	56	41.1%23 W · 33 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb97e…4d9abacked Burnley FC	58c	117.24$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	36cpaid	+43.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Burnley FC	60c	113.63$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.57	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Burnley FC	16c	110.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	74	29.7%22 W · 52 L	+12.1wins	+0.16per pick	13cpaid	+125%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Chelsea	39c	102.56$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.56	353	28.6%101 W · 252 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Burnley FC	62c	100$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Chelsea	38c	99.99$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.99	99	38.4%38 W · 61 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Chelsea	39c	99.99$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.99	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Chelsea	38c	99.97$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.98	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-2.8wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-68%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x34b7…36e8backed Chelsea	48c	85.42$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.42	55	25.5%14 W · 41 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Chelsea	40c	84$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.4	834	59.4%495 W · 339 L	+25.1wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5be4…f39cbacked Chelsea	39c	80$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.61per pick	39cpaid	+156.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b2…3886backed Chelsea	39c	76.92$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.92	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ba…f30dbacked Burnley FC	65c	76.92$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	152	45.4%69 W · 83 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Chelsea	40c	75$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	291	46%134 W · 157 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…79cbbacked Chelsea	40c	75$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	54cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Chelsea	39c	64.1$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.1	94	36.2%34 W · 60 L	-7.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-18%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Chelsea	37c	60$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	161	36.6%59 W · 102 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b1…c3ddbacked Chelsea	37c	60$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	32cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Burnley FC	63c	55.33$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.98	259	49.4%128 W · 131 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e28…3e73backed Burnley FC	58c	51.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b06…f4dabacked Chelsea	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Chelsea	41c	50$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.5	614	41.2%253 W · 361 L	-27.4wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Chelsea	27c	50$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.5	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c0…9a85backed Chelsea	40c	49.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	+25%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb5b6…27ddbacked Chelsea	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c40…0c8fbacked Chelsea	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-5.8wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Chelsea	37c	40.54$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.54	327	37.6%123 W · 204 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34da…367fbacked Burnley FC	61c	40$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Burnley FC	78c	32.05$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	159	49.7%79 W · 80 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450e…c1dfbacked Burnley FC	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	61.9%39 W · 24 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+16%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Chelsea	39c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.3	198	53%105 W · 93 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9802…4c0dbacked Chelsea	41c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.7	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	44cpaid	+40.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51f6…368cbacked Chelsea	46c	28.26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.26	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a9c…598dbacked Burnley FC	60c	27.15$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chelsea	39c	27$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.54	202	39.6%80 W · 122 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480e…a98bbacked Chelsea	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	+3.9wins	+0.12per pick	44cpaid	+41.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x725a…c06cbacked Chelsea	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-4.4wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f88…4fdfbacked Burnley FC	64c	23.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb531…b230backed Chelsea	48c	21.55$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.21	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Chelsea (-1.5)this page
Burnley FC vs. Chelsea: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Burnley FC vs. Chelsea: O/U 2.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Chelsea (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event