Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dbeeccd12b64b444448b1565442bf58c58e144047f94b42fbaccc90b9c33b40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 46c | 873.56$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.23 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 58c | 416$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.98 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 56c | 278.09$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ed…0ca6backed Yes | 27c | 249.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 63c | 236.21$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.03 | 567 | 26.1%148 W · 419 L | -20.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 33c | 208.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 170 | 45.3%77 W · 93 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 141.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 127$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 41c | 126.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 118.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 110.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 103.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 43c | 103.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…04d4backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 88.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 57c | 86.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 79.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 65c | 76.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 37c | 73.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…3618backed No | 69c | 72.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 70.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 66.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 69c | 64.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 378 | 43.7%165 W · 213 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 60c | 59.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 62c | 53.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 41c | 53.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…db4fbacked Yes | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 52.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 38c | 46.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb278…0f72backed No | 56c | 44.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 56c | 44.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 41.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 41c | 40.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…08b5backed Yes | 52c | 39.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Yes | 44c | 36.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a6…66f9backed Yes | 55c | 36.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 35.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 64c | 34.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 57c | 29.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 38c | 29.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 28.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 54c | 25.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…5abdbacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 68c | 23.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 78c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 76c | 22.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 333 | 66.4%221 W · 112 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 59c | 21.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 67c | 21.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…6565backed Yes | 76c | 20.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 515 | 52%268 W · 247 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 128 | 75.8%97 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 686 | 58.6%402 W · 284 L | +51.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 55c | 19.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 64c | 19.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 181 | 27.1%49 W · 132 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.