MLB · resolved market
Padres vs. Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ddd6edc239ec5e62af61249ddad8ae243393cc7c9c51a465b4ca80de0af7cca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Padresof Padres, Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Padres | 48c | 5,454$2,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,836.06 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Pirates | 52c | 4,444$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310.88 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Padres | 78c | 2,717$2,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.1 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Pirates | 28c | 1,465$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.12 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Pirates | 51c | 1,073$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.91 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Pirates | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pirates | 20c | 877.28$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.46 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Padres | 49c | 639.35$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.07 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Padres | 48c | 562.16$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.32 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Pirates | 5c | 542.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Padres | 51c | 490.69$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.69 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Pirates | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Padres | 68c | 254.03$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Pirates | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Padres | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Pirates | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pirates | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Padres | 49c | 159.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Padres | 60c | 156$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Pirates | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Padres | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Padres | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Pirates | 51c | 98.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…3b9ebacked Padres | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Pirates | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Padres | 49c | 65.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Padres | 48c | 51.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Pirates | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Padres | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Pirates | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pirates | 52c | 38.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Padres | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ff…7a3bbacked Pirates | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Padres | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Pirates | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…993dbacked Padres | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.