Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e087dc198487316b6ff6530421ef3e231aa7667efe6316c9050a88827976991
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 63c | 1,025$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.28 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…0b69backed Yes | 56c | 519.92$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.79 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 50c | 332.34$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 200.4$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 53c | 179.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2f…7760backed Yes | 53c | 178.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.46 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 45c | 175.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.25 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 74c | 162.33$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 162.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 144.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 47c | 141.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 24c | 124.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…ea87backed No | 33c | 109.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed No | 57c | 105.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 47c | 100.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 54c | 100.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 40c | 95.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 53c | 90.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 47c | 89.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 80.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 61c | 80.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 41c | 71.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 68c | 69.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 56c | 68.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 62.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 44c | 60.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 78c | 50.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 44c | 47.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked No | 49c | 47.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 37c | 46.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 51c | 45.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 43.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af1…b520backed No | 46c | 35.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2d…f86dbacked Yes | 52c | 33.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 33.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 56c | 33.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 32.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe428…d07fbacked No | 76c | 31.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 45c | 31.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 31.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 44c | 30.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 45c | 29.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 70c | 29.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 51c | 28.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 44c | 27.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 27.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 74c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 56c | 27.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…ba11backed Yes | 46c | 26.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…b6aabacked No | 56c | 23.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 66c | 20.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 51c | 20.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 54c | 19.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.