Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e0be94bae18f5f1b59f3d4f3a847cc0fbe3f97df5cada90357d4c4d9af4559a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37be…5a65backed Yes | 72c | 1,380$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.83 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 79c | 522.13$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 496.04$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1a65backed No | 31c | 475.57$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.92 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 344.15$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 26c | 272.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.47 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 260.13$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 67c | 250.66$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.42 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 29c | 223.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.78 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed No | 57c | 214.13$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 39c | 193$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.69 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 184.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 28c | 149.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.84 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 34c | 146.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 38c | 137.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 122.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 98.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 26c | 97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 93.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…dd98backed Yes | 56c | 89.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 75c | 86.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x364e…458fbacked Yes | 58c | 86.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 22c | 81.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 60c | 78.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c0…1a74backed Yes | 78c | 69.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 58c | 60.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 41c | 60.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 50c | 59.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 59.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 62c | 56.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 69c | 56.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8270…d5cabacked Yes | 57c | 52.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 52.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 67c | 51.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 29c | 50.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 37.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 43c | 37.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 38c | 35.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 42c | 35.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed No | 35c | 32.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 38c | 29.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed No | 65c | 27.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…6f79backed Yes | 69c | 26.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…d0e4backed Yes | 76c | 25.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 78c | 25.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked Yes | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 53c | 21.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 68c | 19.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 75c | 17.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 16.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 16.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 75c | 14.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.