Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.90 Week of August 24 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e2125acbb587bef030598f7992b032ae765e03b5d94b8f12f207a9dfc3ae758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 48c | 974.05$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.68 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed No | 58c | 946.07$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.38 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 58c | 829.06$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.4 | 971 | 40.3%391 W · 580 L | -73.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…9c25backed Yes | 44c | 534.88$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.02 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed No | 30c | 384.68$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 400 | 52.3%209 W · 191 L | +20.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 31c | 228$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.88 | 1,322 | 24%317 W · 1,005 L | -64.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 148.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -19.3wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…85dabacked No | 69c | 71.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…e7edbacked No | 70c | 71.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 30c | 47.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 65c | 40.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a5…d2d9backed Yes | 46c | 38.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 48c | 22.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 64c | 21.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -13.2wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8873…852abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba11…4cb9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 69c | 17.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.90 Week of August 24 2026?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $2.80 Week of August 24 2026?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 Week of August 24 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of August 24 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of August 24 2026?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of August 24 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.