Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e3e4c173d32a755a41ee0ecf50230e8bfea9ebc2bb6eafda15a386622f813cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kyōto Sanga FCof Vissel Kōbe, Kyōto Sanga FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,033
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 76c | 3,527$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.77 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Vissel Kōbe | 25c | 1,381$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.76 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Vissel Kōbe | 26c | 996.71$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.15 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Vissel Kōbe | 23c | 991.3$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.33 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Vissel Kōbe | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Vissel Kōbe | 30c | 345.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 73c | 337.02$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 77c | 176.64$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…aa08backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Vissel Kōbe | 20c | 119.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Vissel Kōbe | 19c | 114.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ced…9753backed Vissel Kōbe | 19c | 107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5362…d242backed Vissel Kōbe | 25c | 81.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05a3…dc43backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…d6d5backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 76c | 27.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Kyōto Sanga FC | 77c | 22.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 75c | 20.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Kyōto Sanga FC | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5)Vissel Kōbe won
- Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)Kyōto Sanga FC won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Vissel Kōbe vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.