Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e54a938d85f3dc32fe0943dbd87657eca2bb9c667dbc18fa7aef0a411cd39c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 18c | 269.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 34c | 256.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 65c | 252.23$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…8cc1backed No | 79c | 221.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.88 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 41c | 214.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 155.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3514…e337backed Yes | 41c | 109.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 109.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 107.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 103.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 92.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 46c | 86.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 82.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 63c | 81.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…99f9backed No | 45c | 76.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 43c | 69.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 53c | 66.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 58.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 19c | 55.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 51.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 55c | 46.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 42.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 30c | 41.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 40.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 50c | 40.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 39c | 39.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 76c | 39.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 64c | 39.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 36c | 36.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 59c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 56c | 33.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 49c | 33.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 31.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 35c | 31.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 57c | 26.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 60c | 23.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 58c | 21.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…898dbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.