Tennis · resolved market
Auger-Aliassime vs. Wawrinka: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e5ebd6b452cf1b4abb8d89252e89e384e6ee617188fa0ba4fdbbf1c74d6a69b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e13…391fbacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Under 2.5 | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over 2.5 | 34c | 416.69$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.21 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Over 2.5 | 50c | 400.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…9c6bbacked Over 2.5 | 35c | 202.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Under 2.5 | 72c | 142$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 100.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 194 | 52.1%101 W · 93 L | -13.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d63…8b8cbacked Under 2.5 | 53c | 82.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…dddfbacked Under 2.5 | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 36.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…9207backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 30.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over 2.5 | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…c373backed Under 2.5 | 78c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Wawrinka: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Wawrinka: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Wawrinka: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Wawrinka: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Open Sud de France: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Stan WawrinkaAuger-Aliassime won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs WawrinkaAuger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Wawrinka (+1.5)Auger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.