Europa Conference League · resolved market
Tre Fiori FC vs. FC Drita: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e96a4f169d08670012135a757da45aaf4f0fffd55c2259e95b5ee384fb945a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 78c | 4,169$3,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,244.44 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 3,430$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,713.76 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 22c | 2,084$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.93 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 1,465$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.71 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 25c | 1,400$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 79c | 764$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.56 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…683ebacked Over | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 78c | 391.51$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.04 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 79c | 284$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.36 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 23c | 242.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.55 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 78c | 172$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 80c | 160.63$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Over | 20c | 151.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 77c | 150.41$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.81 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 21c | 149.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.29 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 55c | 129.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb12…f8f5backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 16c | 106.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 95.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 79c | 94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 21c | 85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +11.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 22c | 73.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 23c | 70.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 17c | 61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 44c | 51.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 42c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…7ba8backed Over | 23c | 47.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 21c | 47.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 78c | 31.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 80 | 70%56 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 79c | 25.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 80c | 15.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tre Fiori FC vs. FC Drita: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: FC Drita (-1.5)FC Drita won
- Tre Fiori FC vs. FC Drita: O/U 0.5Over won
- Tre Fiori FC vs. FC Drita: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tre Fiori FC vs. FC Drita: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tre Fiori FC vs. FC Drita: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tre Fiori FC vs. FC Drita: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.