TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,582 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9592…a7b8backed No2c30,364$502 inLost-$501.615228.8%15 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No8c785.21$62 inLost-$62.441128%9 W · 103 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-80%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c666.82$307 inWon+$359.5876821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d67…1a08backed No79c423.93$333 inLost-$333.357328.8%21 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+119.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes46c403.42$184 inWon+$218.9711932.8%39 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No18c236.2$43 inLost-$42.7912232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No17c225.04$38 inLost-$37.855754.4%31 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No75c219.22$164 inLost-$163.7533670.2%236 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No16c216.62$35 inLost-$34.6510151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed32…df4abacked Yes12c175.96$20 inWon+$155.543023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No54c164.28$88 inLost-$88.4810556.2%59 W · 46 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed No51c160$81 inLost-$80.814829.1%43 W · 105 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No15c145.99$22 inLost-$21.913161.8%81 W · 50 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa068…4390backed Yes71c129.42$92 inWon+$37.421070%7 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No23c89.68$20 inLost-$20.4912114%17 W · 104 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No12c85$10 inLost-$10.210756.1%60 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x280e…2b32backed Yes23c84.1$20 inWon+$64.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+328%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bc…7714backed No41c60$24 inLost-$24.39850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No67c58.75$40 inLost-$39.575942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No56c54.93$31 inLost-$30.694969.4%34 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e50…98f0backed Yes39c49.99$19 inWon+$30.4933027.9%92 W · 238 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes34c48.78$17 inWon+$32.163063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeffd…5aa6backed Yes25c44.22$11 inWon+$33.339924.2%24 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No58c20.01$12 inLost-$11.5218949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.