WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f30212522a4a38371ad077c1901af51de6150ac410b4f342fa8f286693714d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Tempoof Phoenix Mercury, Toronto Tempo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 3,664$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.02 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Toronto Tempo | 51c | 3,500$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.98 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Tempo | 47c | 3,314$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.55 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Toronto Tempo | 51c | 2,350$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.44 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.98 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Tempo | 52c | 1,297$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.02 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…e3bbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 999.98$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…4771backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 765.31$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 679.86$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.47 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb15…8393backed Toronto Tempo | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 280.29$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.34 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Toronto Tempo | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 198.49$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 165$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 145.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Toronto Tempo | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6128…b3e7backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 80.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x549d…35b9backed Toronto Tempo | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…0fa6backed Toronto Tempo | 49c | 60.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +218.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 57.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 49.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 30.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 26.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…abb3backed Toronto Tempo | 55c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Toronto Tempo | 48c | 21.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5)Toronto Tempo won
- Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix MercuryToronto Tempo won
- Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 169.5Over won
- Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 170.5Over won
- Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.