TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toronto Tempoof Toronto Tempo, Phoenix Mercury
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury67c30,324$20,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,245.0599548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Toronto Tempo25c16,771$4,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,578.38937.1%33 W · 56 L-8.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Toronto Tempo34c13,034$4,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,652.5636750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Tempo33c11,400$3,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,692.971,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Tempo50c8,201$4,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,076.7322748.5%110 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb546…802cbacked Phoenix Mercury75c7,300$5,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,47510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Phoenix Mercury29c6,199$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.35466.7%36 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c3…6603backed Phoenix Mercury10c5,301$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+113.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Toronto Tempo39c4,951$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,031.62650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+31.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Phoenix Mercury75c4,826$3,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,619.6123245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Phoenix Mercury1c4,600$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Phoenix Mercury74c4,045$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0008762.1%54 W · 33 L-0.4wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Phoenix Mercury21c2,535$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.8312045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Phoenix Mercury4c1,641$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.551618.8%3 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick11cpaid-36.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked Phoenix Mercury59c1,427$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.05520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-66.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7268…78abbacked Phoenix Mercury2c1,069$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.361637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Phoenix Mercury64c1,041$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.293842.1%16 W · 22 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Phoenix Mercury56c1,017$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.7231043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Toronto Tempo37c934.94$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.82157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Phoenix Mercury75c900$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67536154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Toronto Tempo33c894.37$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.066051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd1…7918backed Phoenix Mercury63c850$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-73.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury65c818.59$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.9889349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Phoenix Mercury63c799.96$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.977259.7%43 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury73c735.96$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.6585158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Toronto Tempo26c719.98$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.7813950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Phoenix Mercury27c717.11$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.764027.5%11 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Toronto Tempo40c697.29$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.9736454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0828…a1a6backed Toronto Tempo80c673.54$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.711573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Toronto Tempo23c662.65$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.241643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Toronto Tempo25c652.17$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.17825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+106%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Phoenix Mercury77c649.35$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-50.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf3f3…9e5bbacked Toronto Tempo66c620.96$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Phoenix Mercury66c599.98$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.996746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Toronto Tempo38c539.35$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.354334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Phoenix Mercury70c520.53$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.836237.1%23 W · 39 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Phoenix Mercury63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Toronto Tempo24c499.97$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.982128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Phoenix Mercury3c494.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.68390%0 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc4…a439backed Phoenix Mercury73c493.84$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.52853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Phoenix Mercury56c458.93$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.655660.7%34 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Toronto Tempo27c455$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.1425246%116 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Phoenix Mercury36c444$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.62650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Toronto Tempo33c437.69$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.5114942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Toronto Tempo23c427.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.587946.8%37 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Toronto Tempo31c419.13$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.131172.7%8 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.38per pick35cpaid+111.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf732…4933backed Toronto Tempo63c399.98$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Phoenix Mercury74c395.24$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.48714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.42per pick56cpaid-76.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Toronto Tempo37c389.26$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.712355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Toronto Tempo27c376.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.349743.3%42 W · 55 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Phoenix Mercury74c365$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.19642.7%41 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Toronto Tempo39c325.33$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.692040%8 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d57…18ddbacked Toronto Tempo72c320.86$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.971163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Phoenix Mercury56c317.49$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.649129.7%27 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Toronto Tempo43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.413253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0167…d002backed Toronto Tempo25c300$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2253053.3%16 W · 14 L+6.4wins+0.21per pick32cpaid+68.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8adc…7a1bbacked Toronto Tempo26c288.46$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.461030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Phoenix Mercury24c275.01$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6824852.4%130 W · 118 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Phoenix Mercury74c270.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Toronto Tempo25c269.91$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.4313024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Toronto Tempo28c250.76$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.769635.4%34 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Phoenix Mercury25c240.2$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed Phoenix Mercury63c236.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Toronto Tempo30c228.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.943447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Phoenix Mercury77c220.13$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.0950952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Phoenix Mercury21c205.33$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2837650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Toronto Tempo39c203.87$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.973056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked Toronto Tempo35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1302744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa1…1ea8backed Phoenix Mercury16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+111.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed Phoenix Mercury75c183.63$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Toronto Tempo43c182$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0913844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…c5e1backed Phoenix Mercury73c177.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x864a…7cacbacked Toronto Tempo26c171.27$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.741163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Phoenix Mercury32c164.25$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5419031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed Toronto Tempo22c163.64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.64650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+69.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5184…d17abacked Toronto Tempo70c157.17$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.172378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick69cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc064…6fa8backed Toronto Tempo25c154.31$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.313342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Phoenix Mercury34c148.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.247050%35 W · 35 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Phoenix Mercury68c147.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.11030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-45%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde3d…6b1fbacked Phoenix Mercury70c142.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Phoenix Mercury51c142.26$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.131838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc22a…a35cbacked Toronto Tempo33c140$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.958138.3%31 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Tempo65c134.86$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3450646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e66…0fa6backed Toronto Tempo23c130.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+218.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd776…4fb8backed Toronto Tempo24c111.29$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.582532%8 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cff…eeb8backed Toronto Tempo43c110.04$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.191428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75b6…8ad0backed Toronto Tempo30c107.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x369f…abb5backed Phoenix Mercury75c104$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb1…1002backed Toronto Tempo27c102$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.462661.5%16 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+46.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Phoenix Mercury43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.131847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc37e…9e64backed Toronto Tempo27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd4…5aaebacked Toronto Tempo69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311275%9 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb238…4961backed Phoenix Mercury66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Toronto Tempo37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633732.4%12 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-34.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Toronto Tempo25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7521337.6%80 W · 133 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Phoenix Mercury74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741850%9 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd70c…43eabacked Toronto Tempo35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e5…fe31backed Phoenix Mercury15c99.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Toronto Tempo26c99.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.942045%9 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f9…ae42backed Phoenix Mercury64c96.88$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.