WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8528e222bf432faebb48175b83df56e1a7c00a175d0400d23221942aeda3ab2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Tempoof Phoenix Mercury, Toronto Tempo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Toronto Tempo | 52c | 18,392$9,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,827.95 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 9,905$4,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,722.92 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Toronto Tempo | 52c | 9,000$4,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,320 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 5,681$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.62 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 5,681$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.62 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Toronto Tempo | 53c | 4,611$2,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.24 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 4,133$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.76 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 3,918$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.07 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 2,530$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.01 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 2,044$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.64 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Toronto Tempo | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.98 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 1,500$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Toronto Tempo | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb369…0c39backed Toronto Tempo | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 974.77$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.32 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Toronto Tempo | 55c | 900$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Toronto Tempo | 56c | 888.98$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.98 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Toronto Tempo | 53c | 761.47$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.09 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 683$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.77 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Toronto Tempo | 55c | 537.38$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.85 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 406.25$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Toronto Tempo | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.77 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 371.46$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.86 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…8d7abacked Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 365.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 259.36$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.18 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…03bdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 202.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 166.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 157.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 152$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 119.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 96.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…3772backed Toronto Tempo | 53c | 93.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b92cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 81.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fc…faedbacked Toronto Tempo | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Toronto Tempo | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Toronto Tempo | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4015…c724backed Toronto Tempo | 54c | 37.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Toronto Tempo | 54c | 36.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 32.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Toronto Tempo | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…c62abacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 25.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 23.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed Toronto Tempo | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-7.5)Toronto Tempo won
- Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix MercuryToronto Tempo won
- Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 169.5Over won
- Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 170.5Over won
- Toronto Tempo vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.