South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f491d7bfa66339392e7485e8a6816190e32b1be4e9ff6e9df4c1f803be03d92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fluminense FCof Cruzeiro EC, Fluminense FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Cruzeiro EC | 22c | 3,618$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.29 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fluminense FC | 76c | 2,192$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.3 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Fluminense FC | 78c | 1,200$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.91 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Cruzeiro EC | 26c | 999.98$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Fluminense FC | 75c | 828.16$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.04 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Cruzeiro EC | 24c | 651.75$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.42 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Fluminense FC | 76c | 573.24$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.66 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Fluminense FC | 78c | 404.67$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Cruzeiro EC | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Cruzeiro EC | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…45cebacked Cruzeiro EC | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Fluminense FC | 75c | 206.09$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Cruzeiro EC | 24c | 95.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Fluminense FC | 74c | 94.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Fluminense FC | 76c | 89.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Fluminense FC | 75c | 85.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…8ddabacked Cruzeiro EC | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Cruzeiro EC | 24c | 59.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Fluminense FC | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fluminense FC | 74c | 44.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Fluminense FC | 75c | 42.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Fluminense FC | 77c | 40.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…cf40backed Fluminense FC | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Fluminense FC | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Fluminense FC | 75c | 28.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Fluminense FC | 78c | 26.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Fluminense FC | 74c | 24.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Fluminense FC | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Fluminense FC | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-1.5)this page
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)Cruzeiro EC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.