Champions League · resolved market
Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f913e7fd4ae2767e1a3bb3271dcc6caa12e264fe358b1883923e635f74bd652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 9c | 9,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 76c | 4,493$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.87 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 79c | 1,598$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.46 | 582 | 48.8%284 W · 298 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 78c | 1,255$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.18 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 1,153$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.66 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 22c | 633.98$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Over | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…4683backed Over | 9c | 549.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 34c | 530$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.52 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 22c | 455$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 65c | 443.98$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.39 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Over | 22c | 370$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Over | 23c | 360.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 65c | 331$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Over | 34c | 302.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 66c | 224$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8450…b5a9backed Over | 36c | 223.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 65c | 203.72$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 35c | 178$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 209 | 47.8%100 W · 109 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…84a2backed Over | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f10…4767backed Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Over | 34c | 99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45fb…1289backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ff26backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a4…2770backed Over | 36c | 60.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 35c | 53.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Over | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Under | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Under | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ee…ce6abacked Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 132 | 61.4%81 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Athletic Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.