Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa852b6a825d54dc99409b3dec255196d2954fb72960273febf547ca1d837097a

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,937
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,937 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Champions League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	31c	11,564$3,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,964.79	1,994	43.9%875 W · 1,119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Over	79c	10,441$8,288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,288.01	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.4wins	-0.26per pick	60cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	38c	5,163$1,976 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,187.37	582	48.8%284 W · 298 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2195…16f9backed Under	20c	1,683$337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,346	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.66per pick	34cpaid	+254.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over	37c	1,569$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.7	44	61.4%27 W · 17 L	+3.6wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over	80c	1,250$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	29	69%20 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	67cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e58…efdabacked Over	68c	945.43$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.26	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.68per pick	68cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	20c	693.84$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$555.07	397	46.9%186 W · 211 L	+9.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb737…98b9backed Over	80c	606.03$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.82	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.44per pick	69cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Over	39c	598$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.23	375	44%165 W · 210 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed Over	37c	533.51$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	13c	465.83$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.11	1,511	40.2%608 W · 903 L	-6.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Under	22c	420$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.65	107	44.9%48 W · 59 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Over	28c	352.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.88	41	39%16 W · 25 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f8d…edbebacked Over	23c	300$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	17c	255.19$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.81	383	43.1%165 W · 218 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed Under	22c	217.62$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.79	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5b3…0476backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c6…367dbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23df…c7a8backed Over	80c	187.5$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc758…8574backed Over	53c	149.55$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.28	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-7.4wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Under	21c	144.99$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.09	290	34.5%100 W · 190 L	+16.0wins	+0.06per pick	29cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Over	61c	139.89$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.21	77	42.9%33 W · 44 L	-6.7wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked Under	41c	125$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.75	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x380c…1099backed Over	80c	125$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	104	65.4%68 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	50c	115$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.5	343	42.3%145 W · 198 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ce…0cc9backed Over	31c	112.9$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	43cpaid	+48.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over	32c	110.94$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.6	97	62.9%61 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	+7.3wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe48c…163abacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3459…808abacked Over	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-40%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	49c	99.04$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.51	460	48.5%223 W · 237 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd4…49b7backed Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Under	21c	93.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.73	124	50.8%63 W · 61 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c36…2209backed Over	79c	93.04$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa99…c744backed Over	79c	88$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeee2…035dbacked Over	50c	80$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	49c	78$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.96	338	51.5%174 W · 164 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	19c	76.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.96	189	50.3%95 W · 94 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over	79c	75.72$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	46	63%29 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	67cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b3…07f2backed Over	69c	72.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa74…a8babacked Over	61c	72.01$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.61	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	57cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Over	40c	70$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	14	50%7 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	51c	65.99$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.33	217	45.6%99 W · 118 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a2d…1d12backed Over	80c	62.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c44…a1aabacked Over	80c	61.25$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-4.3wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfff2…f1cfbacked Over	50c	51.36$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.68	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe398…ee2ebacked Over	78c	50$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	39	66.7%26 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4030…14c0backed Over	80c	50$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	72cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Over	80c	50$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	69	58%40 W · 29 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	63cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x884d…1da6backed Over	70c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2285…4bf1backed Over	33c	46.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.16	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffac…d469backed Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	50%20 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d54…81a1backed Over	49c	39.18$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3647…6250backed Over	50c	38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68e8…4facbacked Over	59c	38$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.42	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a83…50d3backed Over	80c	37.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.28per pick	78cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under	33c	35.53$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.96	127	51.2%65 W · 62 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over	63c	31.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	102	56.9%58 W · 44 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3a…d5b0backed Over	80c	31.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	62cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x423d…c621backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a1…1c72backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.31per pick	47cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under	72c	27.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b80…8e56backed Over	59c	26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.34	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+47.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1762…e0debacked Over	80c	25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.6wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6061…1ff7backed Over	59c	25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d68…18a8backed Over	80c	25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ee…f8aebacked Over	80c	25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60dc…9a3ebacked Over	59c	24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdbd…81c2backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67c5…cab7backed Over	62c	16.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…743ebacked Over	80c	15$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	77cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…c60abacked Over	80c	12.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28a5…7e15backed Over	80c	12.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	70cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5this page
Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Athletic Club won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Athletic Club vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event