TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Morelia: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Keegan Smith

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shintaro Mochizukiof Shintaro Mochizuki, Keegan Smith
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,599

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,599 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8bc2…4c80backed Shintaro Mochizuki49c4,704$2,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,386.1746473.3%340 W · 124 L+27.0wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Shintaro Mochizuki24c3,107$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,356.5230225.8%78 W · 224 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Keegan Smith50c2,892$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.252,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Keegan Smith54c2,779$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.611,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki42c2,203$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,281.112,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Keegan Smith54c2,146$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.936,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Keegan Smith67c1,866$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.88,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94ed…f76ebacked Shintaro Mochizuki32c1,815$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Shintaro Mochizuki54c1,638$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.329,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Keegan Smith51c1,598$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.053,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Shintaro Mochizuki57c1,222$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.0565651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Shintaro Mochizuki61c932.99$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.8781047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Shintaro Mochizuki17c809.73$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.351,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Keegan Smith39c800.5$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.952,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Keegan Smith42c707.44$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,67353%887 W · 786 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Keegan Smith71c700.67$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50084963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Shintaro Mochizuki38c670.3$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.184,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Shintaro Mochizuki32c642.05$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.272,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44b6…98b4backed Keegan Smith67c594.32$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.0318548.6%90 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Shintaro Mochizuki32c545.69$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.075841.4%24 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Shintaro Mochizuki62c483.88$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.872,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Shintaro Mochizuki35c426.61$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27637330.3%113 W · 260 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Keegan Smith72c418.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30037071.9%266 W · 104 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Keegan Smith23c370$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.861,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa257…400bbacked Shintaro Mochizuki48c312.85$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Keegan Smith24c302$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.484,47451.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L+133.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9175…bd29backed Keegan Smith37c296.22$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.68446.4%39 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Keegan Smith59c269$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.381,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Shintaro Mochizuki51c245$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1193,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Keegan Smith39c229.47$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.311,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Shintaro Mochizuki48c222.07$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3650731.2%158 W · 349 L-41.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Shintaro Mochizuki34c200$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1331,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Shintaro Mochizuki28c197.63$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.161,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Keegan Smith38c196.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.777,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Shintaro Mochizuki62c160.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2140264.4%259 W · 143 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Shintaro Mochizuki63c159$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8338268.1%260 W · 122 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Shintaro Mochizuki42c151.49$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.121,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki62c130$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.455660.3%335 W · 221 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe64b…9cf1backed Shintaro Mochizuki19c128.89$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.247047.1%33 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6196…1a64backed Shintaro Mochizuki62c112.9$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.916957.4%97 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…f55cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki15c101.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+53.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed Shintaro Mochizuki62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3841272.8%300 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4748…9666backed Shintaro Mochizuki42c99.26$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3548440.3%195 W · 289 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Shintaro Mochizuki33c99.12$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.876,51254.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L+289.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb32…787dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki61c96.38$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.598068.8%55 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Shintaro Mochizuki61c92.57$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.11,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Keegan Smith38c92$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9677047.9%369 W · 401 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Shintaro Mochizuki43c86.78$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.612,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Keegan Smith74c83.82$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7134950.4%176 W · 173 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Shintaro Mochizuki41c77$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6799044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Shintaro Mochizuki32c68.77$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8836333.9%123 W · 240 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe92e…1e38backed Shintaro Mochizuki58c68.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.576071.7%43 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Keegan Smith38c66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0822847.4%108 W · 120 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Keegan Smith38c66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0827246.3%126 W · 146 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Keegan Smith38c65.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0729244.5%130 W · 162 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Shintaro Mochizuki38c64.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.646,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Shintaro Mochizuki49c63.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8990854.5%495 W · 413 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Keegan Smith44c56.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1164346.2%297 W · 346 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Keegan Smith55c56.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.041,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Shintaro Mochizuki42c52.04$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1259440.2%239 W · 355 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bfc…8eb3backed Shintaro Mochizuki42c47.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.623050%15 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Shintaro Mochizuki61c46.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.051,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe36b…64f4backed Keegan Smith45c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Keegan Smith38c43.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.591,98046.2%915 W · 1,065 L-1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Shintaro Mochizuki61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9866452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe761…4f54backed Shintaro Mochizuki55c40.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4926349.4%130 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Shintaro Mochizuki50c39.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.833163.7%211 W · 120 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed Keegan Smith61c39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7965264.1%418 W · 234 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b36…e95ebacked Keegan Smith57c36.31$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.744647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9483…804ebacked Shintaro Mochizuki39c29.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.915514.2%22 W · 133 L-27.4wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-70.4%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1793…4ebbbacked Shintaro Mochizuki71c28.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2794060.6%570 W · 370 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Keegan Smith42c28.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.843,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xc5ea…42e8backed Shintaro Mochizuki62c27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2690459.5%538 W · 366 L+0.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb321…6781backed Keegan Smith55c26.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.371957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Shintaro Mochizuki41c24.96$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8331434.4%108 W · 206 L-25.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Shintaro Mochizuki62c24.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1952457.4%301 W · 223 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba8…fa04backed Keegan Smith66c23.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.82871.4%20 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Keegan Smith64c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7673745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd38…93b1backed Keegan Smith57c21.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce4…5f86backed Shintaro Mochizuki62c20.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.973964.1%25 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe894…d8dfbacked Keegan Smith58c20.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6af…532dbacked Keegan Smith50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba1a…85febacked Shintaro Mochizuki50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1072651.8%376 W · 350 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Keegan Smith61c19.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9111352.2%59 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a0a…e318backed Keegan Smith57c18.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.365865.5%38 W · 20 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Shintaro Mochizuki63c16.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9530853.6%165 W · 143 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.