Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f97e3c8a8f5c5e4102161c752a4f13f4b864728e072caa3a610834fdfc92718
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vici Gamingof Vici Gaming, Cloud Rising
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf837…514abacked Cloud Rising | 1c | 3,564$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked Cloud Rising | 12c | 2,011$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.33 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…de6bbacked Cloud Rising | 9c | 1,266$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.86 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Cloud Rising | 17c | 1,211$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Cloud Rising | 9c | 750$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cloud Rising | 12c | 668.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed Cloud Rising | 4c | 635.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Cloud Rising | 7c | 564.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Cloud Rising | 11c | 509.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Cloud Rising | 10c | 476.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Cloud Rising | 8c | 475.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Cloud Rising | 9c | 373.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed Cloud Rising | 7c | 368.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 357 | 37%132 W · 225 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Cloud Rising | 10c | 355.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 333.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 195 | 47.7%93 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703e…9828backed Cloud Rising | 9c | 317.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8154…7d37backed Cloud Rising | 7c | 317$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 202 | 33.2%67 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed Cloud Rising | 7c | 316.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Cloud Rising | 10c | 282.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Cloud Rising | 10c | 274.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Cloud Rising | 11c | 254$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cloud Rising | 5c | 240.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Cloud Rising | 11c | 234.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…e59dbacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 230.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 220 | 31.8%70 W · 150 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed Cloud Rising | 11c | 227.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…a117backed Cloud Rising | 12c | 207.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…c134backed Cloud Rising | 12c | 206.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Cloud Rising | 12c | 168.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Cloud Rising | 7c | 158.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cloud Rising | 8c | 153.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed Cloud Rising | 7c | 149.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Cloud Rising | 14c | 135.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 488 | 43.6%213 W · 275 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…354dbacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 116.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +5.8wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8885…7712backed Cloud Rising | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Cloud Rising | 15c | 69.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier PlayoffsVici Gaming won
- Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 WinnerVici Gaming won
- Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5)Vici Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.