Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b34435b6fe6bdb2d27188644e3bf202be1760335d6e4f0b401de3ac9befd11b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vici Gamingof Vici Gaming, Cloud Rising
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cloud Rising | 10c | 8,520$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.92 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Cloud Rising | 8c | 3,300$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.64 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Cloud Rising | 5c | 2,989$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.44 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Cloud Rising | 3c | 682.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…fe3fbacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…87e7backed Cloud Rising | 5c | 588.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Cloud Rising | 8c | 569.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cloud Rising | 9c | 568.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…514abacked Cloud Rising | 4c | 547.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Cloud Rising | 10c | 540$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 534.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Cloud Rising | 7c | 506.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 196 | 43.9%86 W · 110 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 506.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Cloud Rising | 7c | 460.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6b…b245backed Cloud Rising | 6c | 417.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Cloud Rising | 10c | 345.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cloud Rising | 11c | 322.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…ddf4backed Cloud Rising | 9c | 304.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 296.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Cloud Rising | 7c | 277.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Cloud Rising | 10c | 277.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Cloud Rising | 9c | 275.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Cloud Rising | 11c | 235.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…6fbabacked Cloud Rising | 10c | 225$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 225 | 43.6%98 W · 127 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cloud Rising | 6c | 210.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Cloud Rising | 8c | 208.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba2…037abacked Cloud Rising | 15c | 202.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cloud Rising | 13c | 103.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 WinnerVici Gaming won
- Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 WinnerVici Gaming won
- Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5)Vici Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.