Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: ThunderTalk Gaming vs. LNG Esports
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0facaaad684cb208939d57cb97bbd138313e9be2ba7052b964e2295fcb98da3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ThunderTalkof ThunderTalk, LNG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked ThunderTalk | 56c | 24,172$13,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,677.24 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed LNG | 45c | 13,902$6,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,255.96 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -18.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed LNG | 43c | 10,092$4,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,336.63 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed ThunderTalk | 69c | 6,828$4,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,103.46 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed ThunderTalk | 59c | 6,424$3,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,646.72 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed LNG | 38c | 4,791$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,843.72 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed ThunderTalk | 55c | 3,791$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.65 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed ThunderTalk | 56c | 3,500$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked LNG | 44c | 3,458$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.52 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…16aebacked LNG | 47c | 2,169$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed LNG | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed ThunderTalk | 53c | 1,300$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed LNG | 41c | 1,135$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.52 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed LNG | 1c | 1,050$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed LNG | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked LNG | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed LNG | 42c | 615.62$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.56 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked ThunderTalk | 57c | 400$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 131 | 64.9%85 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked LNG | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed LNG | 44c | 340.8$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked LNG | 44c | 323.34$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.27 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -13.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked ThunderTalk | 57c | 311$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.73 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked ThunderTalk | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,356 | 51.1%693 W · 663 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…4bcabacked ThunderTalk | 55c | 300$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked ThunderTalk | 71c | 233.45$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.7 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked ThunderTalk | 55c | 218.13$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.13 | 194 | 51%99 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed ThunderTalk | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 274 | 52.2%143 W · 131 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed LNG | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 354 | 31.1%110 W · 244 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked ThunderTalk | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed ThunderTalk | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed ThunderTalk | 65c | 168.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 205 | 63.9%131 W · 74 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked LNG | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed ThunderTalk | 54c | 127.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed LNG | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed ThunderTalk | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 1,136 | 63.1%717 W · 419 L | +51.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…117bbacked ThunderTalk | 60c | 91.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked LNG | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 866 | 49.7%430 W · 436 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…19b3backed LNG | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked LNG | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked LNG | 43c | 39.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed LNG | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 441 | 28.1%124 W · 317 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed ThunderTalk | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 364 | 65.1%237 W · 127 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed ThunderTalk | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02d6…796dbacked LNG | 46c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.