Olympics · resolved market

Will Luca Harrington (NZL) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fbdbd78046b2d98a852680146cc613776a3f56ae3382932b9b41f5f01a72101

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,753

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,733 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa947…16b1backed Yes	3c	1,118$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1c…5ee1backed Yes	3c	1,088$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes	14c	445.04$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.65	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes	10c	288.91$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.14	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed Yes	14c	270.48$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.08	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	4c	270.16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.71	42	0%0 W · 42 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes	10c	269.4$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.71	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes	12c	212.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.67	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	8c	154.18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes	18c	123$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.83	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	-5.3wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d81…ff9ebacked Yes	15c	86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes	15c	83.69$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-31%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ae3…4dd4backed Yes	16c	83$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Luca Harrington (NZL) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event