Olympics · resolved market

Will Birk Ruud (NOR) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61941afc836bd7f9ae8db1f746e95d7bb5bf9b6a0294971b81141584f1a97b4c

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $21,898
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,920

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,898 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc922…2618backed Yes	3c	15,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x95d9…ab03backed Yes	8c	900$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8590…07adbacked Yes	25c	852.64$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.21	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-55%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No	75c	788.95$591 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.56	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-26%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes	20c	641.08$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.4	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	22c	426.52$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.89	244	8.2%20 W · 224 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed No	75c	191.78$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.65	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b62…8fe5backed Yes	33c	183.18$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41d0…a837backed Yes	28c	178.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e20…f3e7backed Yes	30c	163.94$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0097…f101backed Yes	24c	161.61$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.63	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	22c	155.15$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.56	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.7wins	+0.29per pick	48cpaid	+49.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No	68c	149.59$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.59	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb52e…cdcebacked No	76c	146$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.4	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d81…ff9ebacked Yes	30c	139.77$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.25	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes	30c	134.28$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.93	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes	17c	127.84$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.46	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-31%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40f1…893bbacked Yes	24c	123.88$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.25per pick	42cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72bf…5dd9backed Yes	27c	116.35$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	18c	111$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	85	35.3%30 W · 55 L	-6.4wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8f6…d2c9backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.5wins	-0.28per pick	39cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae3…4dd4backed No	73c	95$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.99	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes	17c	92.39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes	27c	89.68$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.23	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+4.2wins	+0.15per pick	46cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No	75c	89.42$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.35	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes	23c	89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.47	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+4.4wins	+0.20per pick	48cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4274…3d39backed Yes	34c	88.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No	68c	75.3$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.81	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	-5.3wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9775…8746backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	61c	47.5$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	+6.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4f…728abacked No	75c	40$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa870…0970backed No	75c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No	63c	23.74$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.89	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	67cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed No	74c	22.07$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.74	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-3.5wins	-0.17per pick	41cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Birk Ruud (NOR) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event