Olympics · resolved market

Will Mac Forehand (USA) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d21868b367437f767b990e047bf9905a59eeb49b930f7537e4c4999bc29281f

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,963
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,963 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x477f…19aabacked Yes	23c	2,184$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$502.07	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+4.4wins	+0.20per pick	48cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x359f…fa80backed Yes	2c	1,400$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	42	7.1%3 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+25%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes	33c	900$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.8	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf878…05c1backed No	11c	700$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$620	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+3.0wins	+0.30per pick	10cpaid	+255.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed No	67c	626.76$423 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.83	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes	31c	600$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.98	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8242…d187backed Yes	33c	575.76$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes	27c	559$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.71	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	-5.3wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd6d…c17fbacked Yes	30c	507.53$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes	31c	464.19$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.77	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5732…9e35backed Yes	44c	459.58$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No	69c	377$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.69	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed No	73c	322.64$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.11	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes	6c	310.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.48	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6eb…bc82backed No	8c	300$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$276	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.92per pick	8cpaid	+1,150%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed No	16c	260.88$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.14	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	+25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	8c	256.85$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.97	244	8.2%20 W · 224 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…4dd4backed Yes	28c	251$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.29	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes	6c	236.61$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.45	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c6c…ce09backed Yes	49c	202.47$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No	73c	200$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.66	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf32…5159backed No	74c	140$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.9	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed No	24c	119.15$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.38	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	70c	118.14$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.89	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	+6.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes	32c	98.15$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.41	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-31%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No	72c	82.48$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.01	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes	16c	77$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d81…ff9ebacked Yes	30c	66.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5669…0f13backed No	71c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.21per pick	45cpaid	+111.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes	37c	39.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed No	70c	26.62$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a5…7400backed No	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+2.0wins	+0.40per pick	40cpaid	+105.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2114…7cd4backed No	70c	25$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Mac Forehand (USA) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event