Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fd2ba98d9310fef95f2b511a537ec0471638798e738cfec0790bc823040d284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7150…0a2bbacked MOUZ | 51c | 3,698$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked MOUZ | 51c | 3,181$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.18 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 45c | 1,915$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.7 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x568e…6980backed PARIVISION | 49c | 1,901$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.62 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked PARIVISION | 54c | 1,616$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.74 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…479dbacked PARIVISION | 49c | 1,296$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed PARIVISION | 49c | 1,279$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.05 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed PARIVISION | 52c | 1,031$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.69 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed PARIVISION | 49c | 841.32$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.54 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed MOUZ | 50c | 582.16$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed PARIVISION | 49c | 555.68$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.4 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed MOUZ | 61c | 530.45$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.13 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed PARIVISION | 49c | 524.27$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.38 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked PARIVISION | 45c | 368.92$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.34 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed MOUZ | 53c | 183.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked PARIVISION | 38c | 183.12$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.63 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed MOUZ | 54c | 179.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed PARIVISION | 61c | 159.48$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked MOUZ | 44c | 149.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked PARIVISION | 49c | 122.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed MOUZ | 51c | 102.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…6223backed PARIVISION | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked MOUZ | 52c | 96.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed PARIVISION | 46c | 96.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…5d92backed PARIVISION | 48c | 93.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked PARIVISION | 45c | 86.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed MOUZ | 53c | 83.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed PARIVISION | 51c | 61.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed PARIVISION | 49c | 58.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a9…30bcbacked PARIVISION | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed PARIVISION | 48c | 38.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked PARIVISION | 48c | 37.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked PARIVISION | 49c | 36.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked PARIVISION | 79c | 29.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed MOUZ | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f3…9dc7backed MOUZ | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed MOUZ | 47c | 28.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed PARIVISION | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked PARIVISION | 56c | 25.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ac…fd38backed PARIVISION | 49c | 22.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed PARIVISION | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked PARIVISION | 68c | 16.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.