TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$144,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,136

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,419 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x05a7…42e6backed PARIVISION71c18,403$13,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,398.9441056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed PARIVISION70c10,514$7,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,150.3440051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed MOUZ24c9,320$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.9351049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked MOUZ29c8,456$2,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,488.1513020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed PARIVISION71c6,302$4,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.9547650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked MOUZ29c5,771$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.9667043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked MOUZ31c4,580$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.8836851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed MOUZ28c4,405$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.385841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION73c4,301$3,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.6996557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed PARIVISION72c4,105$2,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.0554556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ30c3,962$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.4577941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed MOUZ29c3,905$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.8243344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8041…05d6backed PARIVISION79c3,819$3,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.183053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed PARIVISION72c3,333$2,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.1132854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed MOUZ28c2,900$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed PARIVISION75c2,849$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.9871454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked PARIVISION75c2,716$2,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.11,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked PARIVISION74c2,468$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.971,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d11…99cabacked MOUZ23c2,457$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.394734%16 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked PARIVISION72c2,437$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.0414157.4%81 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked MOUZ27c1,945$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.6580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed MOUZ29c1,729$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.698042.5%34 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked MOUZ29c1,713$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.6514747.6%70 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed MOUZ28c1,674$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.8325935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed MOUZ27c1,655$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.460349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed PARIVISION72c1,593$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.0856955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed MOUZ27c1,560$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.3496245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked MOUZ31c1,555$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.2525246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked MOUZ25c1,524$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.0839343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed PARIVISION72c1,512$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.3161745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x124e…6802backed PARIVISION77c1,488$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.913068.5%89 W · 41 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked MOUZ30c1,468$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.318649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed PARIVISION70c1,403$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.4613456%75 W · 59 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c52…677dbacked MOUZ24c1,401$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.858746%40 W · 47 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked PARIVISION71c1,085$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.7236759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed MOUZ28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28065441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed PARIVISION72c993.1$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.0733549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked MOUZ23c959.77$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0646240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked MOUZ27c957.44$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.3895342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ24c847.66$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.582,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION74c843.33$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.061,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed MOUZ35c808.7$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.5630356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked MOUZ31c799.66$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.1132652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da2…8c2bbacked PARIVISION73c766.52$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.3210966.1%72 W · 37 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed MOUZ5c753.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.56132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed PARIVISION68c733.98$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.0150769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb98…6730backed PARIVISION71c730.79$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.94988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.34per pick55cpaid+56.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked MOUZ27c728.53$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.5189749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ33c719.85$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.5581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked PARIVISION72c682.78$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.1836654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed MOUZ27c647.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9628549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked MOUZ28c624.99$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.659257.6%53 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29f9…2aa9backed PARIVISION69c588.84$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.54633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ab…b7e5backed MOUZ30c580.56$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.28425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03a2…7e3ebacked PARIVISION73c552.57$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.1912248.4%59 W · 63 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0833…bc88backed MOUZ28c501.36$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.382751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed MOUZ29c478.7$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8260251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ26c472.12$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3768649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed MOUZ31c454.14$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1914661%89 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed MOUZ25c447.71$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3745061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc42e…0fd9backed PARIVISION66c445.72$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.54728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-58.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1854…be98backed MOUZ33c436.71$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.111850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed PARIVISION70c406.1$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.8380544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed MOUZ28c402.33$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7661548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked PARIVISION73c390$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.358152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed PARIVISION79c388.09$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0667555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked MOUZ28c382.72$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1677458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed MOUZ20c380.8$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1636343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked PARIVISION72c348.26$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0cfd…cd33backed MOUZ32c346.3$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed MOUZ30c344.88$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4645046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed MOUZ30c319.33$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.811742.7%50 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed MOUZ30c319.33$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.843647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed PARIVISION71c306.66$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.3155147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed PARIVISION71c291.7$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2316152.2%84 W · 77 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked PARIVISION70c287.87$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3626956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed PARIVISION73c269.53$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7748054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed MOUZ30c250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7556852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked MOUZ29c247.6$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.829240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked MOUZ25c241.07$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2852649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed MOUZ31c221.59$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6735948.2%173 W · 186 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc82c…25afbacked PARIVISION69c217.79$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.611163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed MOUZ27c216.03$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3339042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed MOUZ32c210.25$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1457735%202 W · 375 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed MOUZ27c204.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.237851.1%193 W · 185 L-1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked MOUZ30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6045052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ29c196.79$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.792,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked MOUZ28c181.49$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8237754.9%207 W · 170 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed PARIVISION70c179.16$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.261,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x127e…cca1backed MOUZ27c178.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8346150.8%234 W · 227 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked PARIVISION71c169.47$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8546872.2%338 W · 130 L+36.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed MOUZ31c160.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8572035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed MOUZ22c159.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6478516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed PARIVISION73c157.41$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.510738.3%41 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed MOUZ29c154.37$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0257654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked MOUZ30c151.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4340644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked MOUZ10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1569033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed MOUZ20c146$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.272637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked PARIVISION73c141.67$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.251747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaca…51d1backed PARIVISION71c138.39$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.136266.1%41 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.