Tennis · resolved market
ITF Troisdorf: Mika Petkovic vs Marvin Moeller
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fd5618f06432b0503f8850e814f8db119e46142f86d8d03db0bd56d05c97862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mika Petkovicof Mika Petkovic, Marvin Moeller
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Marvin Moeller | 71c | 1,257$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.07 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Mika Petkovic | 29c | 862$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.02 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…5dbdbacked Marvin Moeller | 60c | 502.28$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.55 | 479 | 56.6%271 W · 208 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mika Petkovic | 43c | 486.99$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.13 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Mika Petkovic | 27c | 240.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.8 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…23bdbacked Mika Petkovic | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 167 | 69.5%116 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Marvin Moeller | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Mika Petkovic | 37c | 189.17$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.29 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Marvin Moeller | 70c | 184.55$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Mika Petkovic | 21c | 150.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.38 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…22ebbacked Mika Petkovic | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 405 | 27.2%110 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Mika Petkovic | 42c | 78.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1aa…9359backed Mika Petkovic | 17c | 71.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed Mika Petkovic | 36c | 61.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Marvin Moeller | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Mika Petkovic | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 197 | 45.7%90 W · 107 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Mika Petkovic | 38c | 43.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Marvin Moeller | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mika Petkovic | 33c | 38.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Marvin Moeller | 74c | 32.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Marvin Moeller | 72c | 26.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Mika Petkovic | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Marvin Moeller | 68c | 17.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.