CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fe2516907b55fb4091169e7171c2927591de07c6891d6e7bbc393a4f3b0e86d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butterflyof Butterfly, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Rune Eaters | 27c | 408.22$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked Butterfly | 48c | 354.63$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.51 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Butterfly | 59c | 344.46$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.67 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Rune Eaters | 24c | 319$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 2,798 | 37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L | -138.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…bd8ebacked Butterfly | 52c | 318.47$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.64 | 204 | 36.8%75 W · 129 L | -15.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed Butterfly | 55c | 232$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Butterfly | 61c | 205.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 817 | 44.7%365 W · 452 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Rune Eaters | 46c | 185.46$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Rune Eaters | 34c | 171$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Rune Eaters | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 2,530 | 34.6%876 W · 1,654 L | -193.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Rune Eaters | 57c | 120$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Rune Eaters | 41c | 90.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 2,474 | 24.7%611 W · 1,863 L | -316.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Rune Eaters | 51c | 79.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Rune Eaters | 51c | 59.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 702 | 42.2%296 W · 406 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Butterfly | 44c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 2,397 | 42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Rune Eaters | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Butterfly | 54c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1,121 | 42.5%476 W · 645 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Rune Eaters | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 3,267 | 45.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L | -85.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Rune Eaters | 37c | 36.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Rune Eaters | 43c | 32.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,143 | 47.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L | -61.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…186ebacked Butterfly | 77c | 30.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 344 | 62.2%214 W · 130 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Butterfly | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,142 | 54.4%621 W · 521 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Butterfly | 48c | 28.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Butterfly | 57c | 27.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…819abacked Butterfly | 56c | 25.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f25…f17fbacked Butterfly | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…47c8backed Rune Eaters | 57c | 22.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Butterfly | 58c | 21.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…bbf6backed Butterfly | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 194 | 68.6%133 W · 61 L | +25.9wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 PlayoffsButterfly won
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 WinnerButterfly won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.