CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x554168023abbd6ba3696a4ec64f1d8872bc9dde39fc9b63c4a311919c9d49c29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Butterflyof Butterfly, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc75d…0717backed Rune Eaters | 47c | 500$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.29 | 310 | 43.9%136 W · 174 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6a…9fb9backed Rune Eaters | 11c | 344.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Butterfly | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 434 | 37.6%163 W · 271 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Rune Eaters | 27c | 189.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 2,530 | 34.6%876 W · 1,654 L | -193.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Butterfly | 67c | 185.08$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…917ebacked Butterfly | 65c | 175.66$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Butterfly | 57c | 127.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Butterfly | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2,143 | 47.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L | -61.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Rune Eaters | 22c | 106.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Butterfly | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Rune Eaters | 20c | 97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2,195 | 43.1%946 W · 1,249 L | -68.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Rune Eaters | 17c | 96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,890 | 41.9%791 W · 1,099 L | -71.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Rune Eaters | 31c | 93.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Rune Eaters | 17c | 90.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…bf81backed Rune Eaters | 47c | 82.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 358 | 48%172 W · 186 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Rune Eaters | 22c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…4748backed Rune Eaters | 30c | 62.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Rune Eaters | 30c | 61.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked Rune Eaters | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 189 | 39.2%74 W · 115 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…9abcbacked Rune Eaters | 42c | 59.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…faaabacked Rune Eaters | 29c | 52.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…d97cbacked Rune Eaters | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 45.8%272 W · 322 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Rune Eaters | 28c | 45.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2,474 | 24.7%611 W · 1,863 L | -316.9wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Rune Eaters | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 702 | 42.2%296 W · 406 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Rune Eaters | 43c | 32.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,895 | 47.8%906 W · 989 L | -50.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked Rune Eaters | 44c | 31.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Rune Eaters | 43c | 29.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 231 | 50.2%116 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Butterfly | 72c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Butterfly | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,798 | 37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L | -138.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd2…0985backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Butterfly | 70c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2,645 | 51.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L | +21.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 PlayoffsButterfly won
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 WinnerButterfly won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.