MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1012118288953acb73c8fd0c55344ad6e6071b73f7d6521765c1e2c2d72bccda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 51c | 2,552$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.13 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 59c | 2,529$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.75 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 1,454$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f82…9ae1backed Over | 53c | 986.47$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.83 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 805.19$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 787.46$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.85 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 39c | 772.18$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.15 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 49c | 503.13$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.99 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 323.76$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.43 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 55c | 192.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.77 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 65c | 156.31$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 53c | 146.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 44c | 143.03$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 57c | 80.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 60c | 59.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 64c | 55.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 49.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 36c | 31.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 38c | 28.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 55c | 26.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 65c | 23.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Over | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.