South American Leagues · resolved market
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x101c88eb62b8f26175841cc73e390e796f13b5a4c239003e21ce28666cdd60a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 59c | 4,087$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.46 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd495…248ebacked Yes | 42c | 2,133$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed No | 58c | 999.96$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 42c | 944.69$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.3 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 43c | 938.54$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 57c | 759.05$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.9 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 59c | 718$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.62 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +36%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xafff…19b2backed Yes | 38c | 575.86$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed No | 57c | 382.22$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.36 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Yes | 42c | 269.44$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 40c | 202.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 58c | 187.2$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 39c | 156.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 43c | 147.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Yes | 46c | 137.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf52a…6abebacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…5307backed Yes | 43c | 116.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa897…b08bbacked Yes | 45c | 95.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 57c | 93.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…220cbacked Yes | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 41c | 75.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked No | 64c | 65.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf701…bfa9backed Yes | 45c | 53.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…6ab0backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…8f9cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d88…53b6backed Yes | 49c | 40.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 42c | 30.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9c…2c3abacked Yes | 42c | 25.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b1…6dd1backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-23?this page
- Will LDU de Quito vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?No won
- Will LDU de Quito win on 2025-10-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.