Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x102eae76753528da46b8a5fe6dcb00bf73e8462344fb483adfe9347713ec607b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 70c | 813.79$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.91 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 54c | 802$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 40c | 566.74$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.34 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 349.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 310.12$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.74 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 269.39$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 46c | 195.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 77c | 154.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 77c | 139.61$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 69c | 134$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 131.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 37c | 121.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 36c | 117.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 15c | 105.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 42c | 104$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 100.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 56c | 82.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 46c | 81.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 77c | 79.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 62c | 75.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 68c | 74.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 73.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 71c | 73.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 32c | 72.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 44c | 72.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 33c | 71.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 77c | 71.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 39c | 69.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 36c | 67.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…1cbcbacked Yes | 58c | 63.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 28c | 63.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 58.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 57.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 60c | 55.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 64c | 53.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 31c | 51.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 65c | 51.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 29c | 47.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 57c | 46.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 63c | 44.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 73c | 42.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 49c | 41.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…bdd7backed No | 32c | 41.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 57c | 40.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 40.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 44c | 38.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 30c | 36.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…a7bebacked Yes | 70c | 36.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 52c | 35.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 53c | 35.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 64c | 35.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 33c | 34.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 36c | 32.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…acd3backed No | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…422ebacked Yes | 77c | 27.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 63c | 26.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…eeaabacked Yes | 69c | 25.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 60c | 22.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 58c | 20.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 71c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…b63abacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 18.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.