NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chargers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1053051355b39b5ba2e2170d759ccaf3561f8ac0aa27ea4eb9432ae9f9b9d35f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Chargers, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Chargers | 44c | 1,784$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.83 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Commanders | 56c | 890.9$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Chargers | 45c | 636.77$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.46 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Commanders | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Commanders | 56c | 503.83$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.68 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Chargers | 48c | 375$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed Commanders | 52c | 375$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Commanders | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Commanders | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…7239backed Chargers | 46c | 219.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Commanders | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Commanders | 54c | 188.78$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Chargers | 45c | 105.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Commanders | 54c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Chargers | 46c | 61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Chargers | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…0e4bbacked Chargers | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Chargers | 46c | 54.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Chargers | 46c | 45.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…6a01backed Chargers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Commanders | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Chargers | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Commanders | 54c | 22.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Commanders | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)this page
- Commanders vs. ChargersCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Chargers: O/U 42.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chargers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chargers: O/U 47.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chargers: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Chargers (-1.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Chargers (-4.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.