NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Chargers: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x824011d5cdf89cd32e235b64bc33deba89c26b2b4472c030fc9ce434d9febda5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Under | 49c | 30,990$15,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,954.9 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Under | 51c | 27,385$13,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,423.58 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 51c | 25,346$12,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,869.78 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Over | 49c | 16,619$8,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,128.89 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Over | 51c | 14,775$7,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,535.21 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 52c | 14,700$7,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,056 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 48c | 14,000$6,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,720 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 50c | 1,965$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.88 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 50c | 1,113$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.63 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 49c | 1,096$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.37 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 51c | 1,000$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.18 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 53c | 423.2$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Over | 48c | 346.3$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 230.75$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.19 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 51c | 190$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eac…e064backed Over | 49c | 81.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…a817backed Under | 52c | 62.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…0e4bbacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 48c | 44.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…70a4backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Commanders vs. Chargers: O/U 47.5this page
- Commanders vs. ChargersCommanders won
- Commanders vs. Chargers: O/U 42.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chargers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chargers: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Chargers (-1.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Chargers (-2.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Chargers (-3.5)Commanders won
- Spread: Chargers (-4.5)Commanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.